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Τετάρτη, 9 Δεκεμβρίου 2009


Το παρακάτω άρθρο υπάρχει σήμερα στην πρώτη σελίδα του seekingAlpha. Ενδιαφέρον παρουσιάζουν και τα σχόλια των αναγνωστών του άρθρου :
Fitch Downgrades Greece to BBB + as Violence Erupts  11 comments
by: Edward Harrison December 08, 2009    
Greece has been downgraded by Fitch Ratings to BBB+ over concerns about its budget deficit. Despite the cut, Fitch maintained a negative outlook on the country’s ratings, meaning it could fall further in the near future. This action highlights how the real sovereign debt crisis is in Europe not in Dubai.
The ratings agency said:
The downgrade reflects concerns over the medium-term outlook for public finances given the weak credibility of fiscal institutions and the policy framework in Greece, exacerbated by uncertainty over the prospects for a balanced and sustained economic recovery.
Icelandic-style violence erupted in Greece on the anniversary of the death of a boy at the hands of Greek police. The combination of this tragedy, a deep recession, and a spiralling budget deficit now expected to reach 12% of GDP is ripping at the fabric of Greek society. Some are using this as an excuse to promote anarchy; just yesterday protesters stormed the Senate and hoisted an anarchist flag in place of the Greek national one. However, clashes in Athens have as much to do with the desperate economic situation as anything else, as a boy in the video below recounts.
. . . εδώ ακολουθεί ένα link από ένα video σε σχέση με τα μπάχαλα που έγιναν τις τελευταίες ημέρες . . .
Greece has the economy worst affected by the credit crisis in the Eurozone economy. Many speculators have looked to it as the next domino in the wake of troubles in Dubai. If there is any contagion from the events in Dubai, expect it to pop up here where credit default swap rates and spreads to German government debt have soared and bank shares have plunged.
In February, Niels Jensen noted that Greece’s long-term fiscal outlook is even more worrying than the near-term outlook given unfunded liabilities there.
Another issue, which is potentially even more destabilising for the euro longer term, is the massive liabilities facing Europe as its population ages. We have borrowed table 2 below from Goldman Sachs which makes no secret of the challenges facing a number of European countries. Greece is clearly facing the biggest challenge. Public debt, which currently stands at about 95% of GDP, will grow to a whopping 555% of GDP by 2050 if the current pension and social security programme is left unchanged. The Greek government is painfully aware of this and have been working on several new initiatives. It was the passing of one of those new laws which caused the riots in Athens before Christmas.
These issues are now re-surfacing and threaten to derail an incipient economic recovery. Greece bears watching given the potential for contagion if things do sour there. Other markets to watch for contagion are Spain, Portugal and Ireland as they are all part of the Eurozone and do not have control over monetary policy as a tool to fight a downturn.
"Violence erupts" suggests that the downgrade should be more than just to BBB+.
This is the most important story of the day and should be watched. There is a chance that Europe will flame out early, and become the black swan that leads everything back down.
Agreed. First Dubai. Now the Euro-zone (PIGS) - Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain. Don't forget Ireland and the Baltic States with GB bringing up the rear. Sovereign defaults = Black Swan
And Greece, was predicted to be a flashpoint on this very website....

The dominoes are certainly falling.

Retail Sales DOWN
Stock Market Down 1.1% and falling
Consumer Credit, falling like a brick
Foreclosures Increasing like a blowfish
Late mortgage payments rising
Hotel vacancies rising
CRE vacancies rising
Construction spending falling
400 projects put on hold in Dubai
Manufacturing (GLOBAL) Falling
Inventories (GLOBAL) Rising
Unemployment??? Falsified information from BLS, ADP and Trimtabs dispute, Unemployment.....RISING
Skilled Labor FALLING
Skilled Labor taking Unskilled positions, Rising
Unemployment Burden *Unemployed times the Duration in Months Unemployed......The LARGEST IN HISTORY
Crap. Another Black Swan, and Nassim Taleb is sequestered writing his next book. Can someone please knock on the study door and see if he'll come out one more time? Let's bring him back onto CNBC, along with Nouriel Roubini, Charles Biderman of Trimtabs and Meredith Whitney, and for once get some freakin' truth out. Those BLS stats are 1 -- mostly temp holiday and tax season labor, and 2 -- more and more folks falling off the rolls, so they're conveniently not counted.

You know, what really fries me is that this is going to affect our kids and grandkids. This is not just a dot-com or post-9/11 isolated issue. This has the power to cancel a lot of American Dreams.

Downgrade of one more in the Eurozone could be what shoves us all over the double-dip cliff.
Regarding all this use of "Black Swan" rhetoric...
Real Black Swans are things you don't see coming. To the extent that these admittedly dismal developments have been anticipated, they can not be Black Swans. I could try listing possible Black Swans, but the more realistic sounding ones can be more or less anticipated, and as such are not the kind of highly improbable blindside event that qualifies. And anything I can think of
A downgrade on a bit of violence is crazy. Violence erupts in many cities in Europe sporadically - esp in relation to G7 meets etc. No big deal.

Greece has been hard done here, and let's face it, as the bastion of European civilization it deserves better. Bad job Fitch!
Maybe instead of lining the riches of the Chinese oligarchs, the europeans should think about brining manufacturing back to their own shore. Lots of people looking for jobs in Ireland and Greece.

idiots in charge
Chris: 'Foreclosures Increasing like a blowfish'.

Best metaphor of the day.
Actually, you have the causes and effects confused. The downgrade was because Greece is insolvent. The violence was because of the insolvency (and perhaps the downgrade, I don't know).

But a civil war SHOULD be considered when rating a country's stability for investment
That's what the religion of 'globalism' does, I guess...creates idiots.
Θέλουμε να υπενθυμίσουμε στους φίλους αναγνώστες πως σπάνια ασχολούνται στο seekingAlpha αλλά και σε άλλα χρηματιστηριακά blogs / forum με το ελληνικό χρηματιστήριο και την ελληνική οικονομία. Τουλάχιστον τα 2 τελευταία έτη όσα άρθρα έχω διαβάσει αφορούν ελληνικές ναυτιλιακές εταιρείες που διαπραγματεύονται οι μετοχές τους στα αμερικάνικα χρηματιστήρια και πολλές φορές είναι στο επίκεντρο (λόγω και υψηλών διακυμάνσεων). Μπορεί πολλές απόψεις και σχόλια να είναι εκτός πραγματικότητας όμως πάντα πρέπει να μας απασχολεί η εικόνα της πατρίδας μας στον μέσο ενεργό πολίτη του εξωτερικού.
Ο συγγραφέας του άρθρου γράψει αρκετά ενδιαφέροντα άρθρα :
Edward Harrison is a banking and finance specialist at the economic consultancy Global Macro Advisors. Previously, he worked in various strategy and finance roles at Deutsche Bank, Bain Consulting, and Yahoo. Mr. Harrison started his career as a diplomat in the foreign service. He speaks German, Dutch, Swedish, Spanish and French as well as English. He holds an MBA from Columbia Business School and completed his undergraduate studies with a degree in economics from Dartmouth College. He writes at the blog Credit Writedowns.

Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/edwardnh to receive updates on articles and much more.


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